2022 Team Talent Composite: CFB's elite programs continue to separate from the field

The 2022 college football season is officially here, which means it's a good time to think about talent. Ultimately, that's the barrier to entry for national championship consideration. Every national title winner in the internet recruiting era, which started in 2002, had at least one five-star recruit on its roster.

Another piece of evidence to the importance of recruiting? The 247Sports Team Talent Composite (link is HERE), a metric that examines and ranks every FBS team – accounting for transfers, dismissals and other early departures – based on how their players were rated in high school.

Since the rankings debuted in 2015, every national champion slotted within the Top 10 of the Team Talent Composite. All but Clemson (2016) ranked within the top six.

Obviously, this metric isn't perfect. Some players fail to live up to the hype while others outperform high school expectations. The Team Talent Composite also does not yet consider 247Sports’ transfer rankings.

The Team Talent Composite provides a roster talent baseline for every FBS team. 247Sports updated it this week, and here's what you need to know from the latest rankings.

Last year, Georgia and Alabama were the first teams in Team Talent Composite history to eclipse 1,000 total points in the rankings. Alabama did it again this year, setting a record with 1,016. The Crimson Tide have also smashed a record with their average prospect ranking being 94.7, up from 94.3 a year ago.

Alabama's recruiting success and roster building prowess can have a numbing effect. Just don't lose sight of how loaded this roster is in comparison to previous years. For example, the Tide's 2015 national title team had an average prospect ranking of 93.1. It was 93.3 for Alabama's 2017 title and 93.5 for the 2020 national championship.

This Crimson Tide roster is LOADED.

The Bulldogs might not be historically talented like they were a year ago, but they’re close. Georgia's average prospect ranking of 93.4 is the fourth highest in history and is higher than every No. 1 team in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite prior to the 2021 campaign. So, while Georgia lost a ton of production off its national title-winning team, the 2022 version of the Bulldogs is no less talented. Georgia should be right back in the mix for a national championship.

Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State have been 1, 2 and 3 in these rankings every year since 2018, and the Buckeyes have largely held their ground during that time. Ohio State ranked 1st in 2018 with an average player rank of 92.9. Five years later, the Buckeyes’ average player rank is 92.8.

The Buckeyes have the second-most five-stars (14) of any program nationally and have a massive advantage over the rest of the Big Ten. The next closest Big Ten teams to Ohio State in the Team Talent Composite are No. 14 Michigan and No. 15 Penn State.

In fact, the Buckeyes’ 14 five-stars are more than the rest of the Big Ten (10) combined.

When Jimbo Fisher took over Texas A&M in 2018, the Aggies ranked 16th in the Team Talent Composite. Here's how they’ve ranked every year since:

2018: 16th2019: 12th2020: 11th2021 8th2022: 4th

Given that every national champion but one (2016 Clemson) has ranked among the top six of the Team Talent Composite since its 2015 origins, the Aggies are now in striking distance to win a national title.

By the way, it's worth noting that Florida State ranked fifth in this metric during Fisher's final season with the Seminoles. Now they rank 18th. Say what you will about the way Fisher exited Tallahassee, but the guy can recruit.

Dabo Swinney handles roster management different than any other head coach in college football, especially regarding his view on transfers. And it's largely workinh. The Tigers sit within the top five of these rankings for the third straight year thanks to continued recruiting success. In fact, Clemson's average player rating (91.1) is the second-highest for the program in Team Talent Composite history behind only the 2021 roster.

However, it's worth noting that the gap between Clemson and those like Alabama is widening. The Tide had an 2.3-point player average ranking advantage over the Tigers when Clemson won the 2018 national title. That difference has grown to 3.3 in 2022. Part of that is a historic Tide roster. But it's also worth mentioning Alabama's loading up in the portal with former elite prospects like Eli Ricks and Jermaine Burton. Clemson, for its part, is occasionally losing talented depth to the portal.

Clemson is still within striking distance to win a national title. The Tigers are more talented than they were in 2018. But that gap between the transfer-willing teams at the top and Clemson is something to monitor.

If you’re looking for a cutoff to figure out which teams can win national title in 2022, the top 16 of the Team Talent Composite is a decent place to start. All but three playoff teams since 2015 (Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati) ranked within the top 16 of the Team Talent Composite. Realistically, there are 15 to 20 teams each season with a legitimate chance to reach the CFB Playoff.

Only 16 teams in the 2022 Team Talent Composite have an average player recruiting ranking of 89 or higher. As it happens, all but five of those (Penn State, Auburn, Texas, Florida, LSU) are ranked in the top 16 of the preseason AP Poll.

Are there teams outside of that group that could make a run? Absolutely. Just think of Cincinnati last year. But that was more of an anomaly than the norm.

No. 6 Texas: There really shouldn't be many excuses in Austin. The Longhorns jumped from No. 11 to No. 6 despite going 5-7 a season ago. The only teams ahead of Texas in these rankings rank in the top 6 of the preseason AP Poll. Texas has the talent. It's a matter of it showing up on the field.

No. 13 Miami: Mario Cristobal has everything he needs to make a run in Year 1. The Hurricanes are the second-most talented team in the ACC and the only other team besides Clemson to rank among the top 15. Miami has only been to one ACC Championship game since it joined the league in 2004.

No. 16 North Carolina: Speaking of underperforming ACC teams, North Carolina hasn't won more than eight games since 2015. That 11-win UNC squad ranked 25th in the Team Talent Composite. The Tar Heels have ranked higher than that the last three years of the Mack Brown era yet have only averaged seven wins per season. The ACC Coastal is there for taking. The Tar Heels have the talent to do so.

No. 24 Nebraska: Perhaps it's picking at wounds to place the Huskers here. But it's really important to point out that Nebraska is the most talented on-paper team in the Big Ten West and the fourth-most talented team in the Big Ten. It ranks higher than No. 25 Wisconsin, No. 36 Iowa and way higher than No. 46 Northwestern. The Huskers have more to work with than any other team in the division. They just haven't gotten it done.

No. 27 Kentucky: The Wildcats have won eight-plus games three of the last four years despite being the 11th-most talented team in the SEC, per the Team Talent Composite. That's a credit to what Mark Stoops has done from a development standpoint. Kentucky is trending the right direction from a recruiting standpoint, too. The Wildcats ranked 38th in these rankings when they debuted in 2015.

No. 33 Utah: Few coaches have done more with less, at least on-paper talent, than Kyle Whittingham. And that's still the case as the Utes rank as the sixth-most talented team oin the Pac-12. Though, they’re on the upswing. Utah ranked 44th in these rankings five years ago.

No. 36 Iowa: A perennial staple of the doing-more-with-less all-star team, Iowa continues to pile up winning seasons – nine straight – despite being the seventh-most talented team in the conference. Like a few others in this group, Iowa is trending higher. The Hawkeyes ranked 43rd in these rankings just two years ago.

No. 41 Baylor: Baylor has placed an emphasis on developing athletes ever since Matt Rhule took over the program – Dave Aranda has continued the same scouting profile – and it's resulted in Baylor being annually competitive despite having the fifth-most talented roster in the Big 12.

No. 45 Pittsburgh: The Panthers are the eight-most talented team in the ACC, per the Team Talent Composite Rankings. Given that Pittsburgh is coming off an ACC title and have produced a combined eight draft picks the last two cycles, it's fair to say Pat Narduzzi has out preformed the program's recruiting expectations.

No. 49 Cincinnati: The Bearcats were the first program to ever reach the CFB Playoff and rank outside the top 50 of the 247Sports Team Talent Composite rankings. But they’re moving up quickly. Cincinnati is the top-ranked G-5 team in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite and it would actually rank 8th among Big 12 teams if it were included in the league.